竹炉山房

今日早间，央行公告，当日OMO（公开市场操作）七天期逆回购中标利率1.90%，较前一日降低10 bps。这是自2022年8月15日以来，央行首次下调OMO利率。

OMO下降后，一般来说LPR（贷款市场报价利率）也会跟随下调，因此本次可能会在周四和下周二分别下调5年期和1年期LPR，据传5年期下降幅度将大大超过1年期LPR，旨在提振萎靡的房地产市场。

整体而言，受累于疫情结束红利的消散，二季度经济情势较预期更为严峻，并将进一步影响全年的增长。

Multiple indicators show that China’s recovery is waning following an initial burst of activity in the first few months of this year after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

Deflationary risks are hanging over the economy. The Chinese producer price index fell 4.6% in May, the biggest decline in seven years, according to government statistics released last week. The consumer price index edged up 0.2% in May from a year ago. In April, the CPI increased by just 0.1%.

The low inflation levels are in sharp contrast to rising prices in other major economies around the world, suggesting weakness in China’s domestic demand.

Exports fell 7.5% in May from a year earlier, the biggest decline since January, and imports contracted further.

The country’s official manufacturing PMI, a gauge of factory activity among big, state-owned firms, slid further into contraction territory in May.

Youth unemployment rate, meanwhile, surged to a historic high of 20.4% in April, highlighting the pressure the economy is facing to absorb new workers.

“China’s growth has been losing momentum amid deteriorating confidence,” said Zhaopeng Xing and Betty Wang, analysts for ANZ Research, in a research note on Tuesday.

Moreover, heavily indebted households are attempting to save up to repay loans instead of spending, they said. Local governments are also facing mounting debt repayment pressure this year.

The authorities appear increasingly worried.

Yi Gang, governor of the PBOC, said last weekend that “counter-cyclical adjustment” will be strengthened.

In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group. “Governor Yi sent a clear signal that further policy support would be forthcoming in the near term.”

The “policy turning point is imminent,” he added.

Laura He. (2023-06-13). China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/13/economy/china-surprise-rate-cut-economic-recovery-intl-hnk/index.html